SLU/YouGov Poll Analysis: SLU/YouGov Poll Shows that Missouri Has Turned Rather Suddenly from a Competitive State into a Solid Red State
08/29/2024
SLU's Kenneth Warren, Ph.D., provides expert analysis of the results of the latest SLU/YouGov Poll, examining where Missourians stand on a variety of issues.
Going into Election Day 2016, Democrats held every statewide seat in Missouri except lieutenant governor, held then by Peter Kinder. But in 2016, Donald Trump won the presidential election in Missouri by 18.5% with very long coattails, sweeping into office all Republicans running statewide for office that year. Since then, Republicans have dominated Missouri politics, now occupying all statewide offices and controlling the Missouri legislature with a veto-proof super majority.
Our August 2024 poll of 900 likely Missouri voters shows that Republican candidates for statewide office, if the election were held today, would likely win every statewide office by comfortable margins because each candidate has a double-digit lead going into the Nov. 5 general election. On the presidential level, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by 13%, 54% to 41%. While this is a comfortable margin, Trump’s support is trending downward in Missouri because in 2016 he won Missouri by 18.5%, while in 2020 his winning margin dropped off to 15.4%. This shows a drop-in support of 5.1% from his 2016 winning margin to what our August 2024 poll shows. Still, Trump’s lead over Harris is comfortable going into the general election, so we feel Trump is very likely to defeat Harris by double digits this November.
Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Josh Hawley also has a comfortable lead going into the Nov. 5 election. He leads Democrat Lucus Kunce by 11%, 53% to 42%. The closest race is between Republican Mike Kehoe and Democrat Crystal Quade for Missouri governor, although our poll reveals that Kehoe holds a 10-point lead over Quade, 51% to 41%.
Other Republican candidates lead by wider margins. Republican David Wasinger, running for lieutenant governor, leads Democrat Richard Brown by 14 points, 51% to 37%. In the attorney general’s race, incumbent Republican Andrew Bailey leads challenger Democrat Elad Gross by 13 points, 51% to 38%. In the race for Missouri secretary of state, Republican Dennis Hoskins leads Democrat Barbara Phifer by 18%, 54% to 36%, while Republican Vivek Malek leads Democratic challenger Mark Osmack by 14 points, 52% to 38%.
Additional Races in Missouri
Likely voters' responses to 'If the election for lieutenant governor of Missouri were
being held today, who would you vote for?': 51% David Wasinger (R), 37% Richard Brown
(D), 1% Other, and 11% Not sure. Democratic voters' responses: ' 4% David Wasinger
(R), 86% Richard Brown (D), 2% Other, and 8% Not sure. Republican voters' responses:
85% David Wasinger (R), 6% Richard Brown (D), 1% Other, and 8% Not sure.
Likely voters' responses to 'If the election for attorney general of Missouri were
being held today, who would you vote for?': 51% Andrew Bailey (R), 38% Elad Gross
(D), 1% Other, and 9% Not sure. Democratic voters' responses: ' 2% Andrew Bailey (R),
91% Elad Gross (D), 0% Other, and 6% Not sure. Republican voters' responses: 89% Andrew
Bailey (R), 6% Elad Gross (D), 0% Other, and 5% Not sure.
Likely voters' responses to 'If the election for secretary of state of Missouri were
being held today, who would you vote for?': 54% Dennis Hoskins (R), 36% Barbara Phifer
(D), 1% Other, and 9% Not sure. Democratic voters' responses: ' 8% Dennis Hoskins
(R), 84% Barbara Phifer (D), 0% Other, and 8% Not sure. Republican voters' responses:
89% Dennis Hoskins (R), 6% Barbara Phifer (D), 1% Other, and 5% Not sure.
Likely voters' responses to 'If the election for treasurer of Missouri were being
held today, who would you vote for?': 52% Vivek Malek (R), 38% Mark Osmack (D), 1%
Other, and 10% Not sure. Democratic voters' responses: ' 7% Vivek Malek (R), 87% Mark
Osmack (D), 0% Other, and 6% Not sure. Republican voters' responses: 85% Vivek Malek
(R), 7% Mark Osmack (D), 0% Other, and 7% Not sure.Crosstabs disclose why Republicans are likely to win all these statewide elections. Although Democrats normally do better than Republicans among women voters, this is not true in Missouri in these upcoming election contests. All Republican candidates are winning by comfortable margins among both male and female voters. Republican candidates are also favored by likely voters in all age groups, except those ages of 30-44, although Democrat Lucas Kunce, running for U.S. Senate, and Democrat Crystal Quade, running for governor, also lead their Republican rivals in the 18-29 age group. For sundry reasons, all Republican candidates are losing to their Democratic challengers in the 30–44-year age group.
As would be expected, all Republican candidates have considerable support among white likely voters (their base), leading by about 20 points or slightly more. Trump is leading by 22 points, 58% to 36%, Hawley, by 20 points, 58% to 38%, Kehoe by 20 points, 56% to 36%, Wasinger by 20%, 54% to 34%, Bailey by 19 points, 55% to 36%, Hoskins by 23 points, 57% to 34%, and Malek by 22 points, 56% to 34%. However, all these Republican candidates are losing by large margins among Black voters and what we have labeled in our poll, “all non-whites”, by around 40 to 50 points. But since the vast majority of voters in Missouri are white (85% in our poll), the heavy lopsided vote preference against Republican candidates among minority voters (Black voters constituted only 10% of our sample) is easily offset by the large block of white voters.
Those identifying as Independents in our SLU/YouGov Poll broke heavily for the Republican candidates by 20 points or slightly more, but with two exceptions. Trump led Independents by only 11%, while Kehoe led by only 7%. As expected, partisanship again proved to be the greatest determinant of vote choice with 93% of Republicans supporting Trump and 90% of Democrats supporting Harris. This partisan vote preference pattern held up for races we polled.
Republican candidates did well among all income categories except those making above $100,000 per year. Only Trump had more support from those earning above $100,000, and only by 1 point, 48 to 47%. Republicans also did well across educational categories but the highest educational level. Support for all Republican candidates tended to drop as educational level increased. In fact, we found a perfect pattern downward as support dropped off as the educational level increased. For example, Trump received 64% vote support among those with high school or less education, 55% from those with some college, 46% with a four-year college degree, and only 38% support from those with post-graduate education.
As we have found in our past SLU/YouGov polls, strong support for Republican candidates came from all the rural areas of Missouri, while support for Democrat candidates came from the metro areas of Missouri. For example, while Trump has strong support in northwestern Missouri, 54% to 34% for Harris; northeastern Missouri, 62% to 27%; southwestern Missouri, 66 to 27%; and southeastern Missouri, 76% to 23%, he trails Harris 53% to 42% in the St. Louis metro area and in metro Kansas City, 49% to 46%. This same pattern was seen for the U.S. Senate, governor, attorney general, secretary of state and treasurer races.
This analysis is based on data from the August 2024 SLU/YouGov poll and reflects the opinion of the author.